Policy briefs
Venezuela
Todas · Econometría · Big Data · Pobreza · Macro/Sectorial · Diseño de Políticas · Experimentos
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Venezuela post 3E: Persistencia de la intención de migrar y efectos sobre el capital humano
About 4.5% of Venezuelan adults say they want to emigrate, and 28% of them already have a concrete plan for the next twelve months, roughly 249,000 people. Those with plans have more schooling than average (12.1 years against 10.5). If everyone who wants to leave…
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Doblete sísmico (y parte 4): Resultados de la encuesta de verificación en terreno de la magnitud y extensión del daño de las edificaciones afectadas por el terremoto del 24J
A field survey of 1,000 randomly selected buildings in seven coastal parishes of La Guaira, carried out in August 2026 with the EMS-98 damage scale, finds that 57.4% of the 15,339 eligible buildings suffered some damage, 22.6% (about 3,466) severe damage and 11.2% (about 1,720)…
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Colapso de los servicios públicos: Los costos de la crisis de electricidad y agua sobre el mercado laboral de Venezuela
In 2026, seven in ten Venezuelan households (70.2%) received water or electricity precariously, up from 48.5% in 2025 and the highest level on record, driven mostly by electricity rationing. Living in such a household lowers the probability of labour-force participation by 4.4 percentage points and…
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Doblete sísmico (parte 2): población vulnerable, distribución de daños y priorización territorial en La Guaira
Social vulnerability and earthquake damage do not spatially coincide — 112,225 vulnerable people live in undamaged buildings, meaning a response calibrated on physical damage alone would miss them. A Social Vulnerability Index projected to census-segment level via machine-learning small-area estimation finds 187,305 people (60.3% of…
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Doblete sísmico: población afectada y costos de reposición de la infraestructura habitacional de la línea costera de La Guaira
Of an estimated 403,784 people across seven coastal parishes, 73,524 lived in damaged structures and 37,611 in severely compromised or destroyed ones
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Una nueva canasta alimentaria para Venezuela: La Canasta Alimentaria Efectiva Ampliada (CAE-A), los ingresos laborales y la coyuntura socioeconómica actual
As of March 2026, 41.8% of Venezuelan workers earn less than the cost of an individual food basket — a new ‘poverty wages’ indicator measuring insufficiency at the level of the worker rather than the household. The basket’s dollar cost rose 33.7% year-on-year to US$394.8…
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Impacto de los Booms Petroleros en el Capital Humano: El caso de la Apertura Petrolera de Venezuela en los 90s
Contrary to the resource curse literature, exposure to oil investment raised human capital accumulation. Young people in treated municipalities acquired 0.2 additional years of schooling — comparable in magnitude to direct educational interventions such as school construction programmes — and poverty rose to 32% against…
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Ocho datos sobre las mujeres en el mercado laboral venezolano al cierre de 2025 (a propósito del 8M)
Female-headed households have risen from 28.1% of the total in 1998 to 71.3% today, and their poverty rate of 80.3% runs 11 points above male-headed households. Female labour participation of 50.8% is the lowest in Latin America bar Honduras.
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La canasta importa: problemas en la medición de la canasta alimentaria en Venezuela y sus consecuencias
Venezuela’s official food basket, designed in 1997, contains 44% more items than Venezuelans actually eat. This brief constructs an effective basket (CAE 2023) of 28 foods from the 2024 income and expenditure survey, identifying the products concentrating 80% of purchase volume. Consumption is starkly unequal…
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Crisis económica y el colapso del acervo de capital humano venezolano (Parte I)
Venezuela lost 40% of the schooling embodied in its workforce between 2015 and 2021 — some 55.3 million person-years of education withdrawn from production — alongside a third of its economically active population and 27% of its university-educated workers. Average schooling among active workers fell…