Policy briefs
Venezuela
Todas · Econometría · Big Data · Pobreza · Macro/Sectorial · Diseño de Políticas · Experimentos
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Doblete sísmico (parte 2): población vulnerable, distribución de daños y priorización territorial en La Guaira
Social vulnerability and earthquake damage do not spatially coincide — 112,225 vulnerable people live in undamaged buildings, meaning a response calibrated on physical damage alone would miss them. A Social Vulnerability Index projected to census-segment level via machine-learning small-area estimation finds 187,305 people (60.3% of…
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Impacto de los Booms Petroleros en el Capital Humano: El caso de la Apertura Petrolera de Venezuela en los 90s
Contrary to the resource curse literature, exposure to oil investment raised human capital accumulation. Young people in treated municipalities acquired 0.2 additional years of schooling — comparable in magnitude to direct educational interventions such as school construction programmes — and poverty rose to 32% against…
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La canasta importa: problemas en la medición de la canasta alimentaria en Venezuela y sus consecuencias
Venezuela’s official food basket, designed in 1997, contains 44% more items than Venezuelans actually eat. This brief constructs an effective basket (CAE 2023) of 28 foods from the 2024 income and expenditure survey, identifying the products concentrating 80% of purchase volume. Consumption is starkly unequal…
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Oportunidades perdidas: Tendencias en la movilidad intergeneracional en educación en Venezuela
Upward educational mobility fell 41% between 1994 and 2021 while downward mobility rose 105%, placing Venezuela fourth from the bottom in Latin America — children are now markedly less likely to exceed their parents’ schooling than a generation ago. Built from mobility tables using EHM…
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Venezuela, desindustrialización prematura y productividad
Industrial employment collapsed from 21.5% to 3.5% of the total between 2015 and 2023, while services rose to 84% — a services share exceeding that of the United States in an economy with 5% of US labour productivity. The composition matters: in the US, services…
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Trabajo no remunerado y desigualdades de género en Venezuela: Un análisis a partir de la EUT 2023
Venezuelan women work longer total hours than men — 12h49m daily against 11h34m — while participating in paid work at barely half the male rate (31% against 54%). An estimated 15.4 million people perform unpaid care work, 65% of them women, valued at between US$0.84…
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Violencia basada en género en la política venezolana: Un análisis de datos en redes sociales
Beyond receiving 41% more violent tweets than male counterparts, women political activists respond differently: harassment appears to inhibit their subsequent posting while not inhibiting men’s, effectively truncating their political speech. Women were 43% more likely to receive a violent interaction, and sexualising, instrumentalising and direct…
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¿Cuál es el estado actual de nuestras escuelas? Resultados de la Encuesta Nacional de Edificaciones Educativas 2021 (ENEED21)
Enrolment fell by 1.21 million students between 2018 and 2021, from 7.70 to 6.49 million, with an estimated 44% of the loss attributable to emigration. Teaching staff fell 24.9%, some 68,000 teachers having left the country. Sixty-nine percent of schools show deprivation on at least…
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¿Cuántos habitantes tiene Venezuela?: Una estimación a partir de imágenes satelitales y luces nocturnas.
Venezuela’s 2020 population is estimated at 28,142,489 (±3.9%), some 14% below the official projection of 32.6 million. With no census since 2011 and roughly six million emigrants, the study trains a predictive model on census-era high-resolution imagery and applies it to 2020 satellite imagery across…
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¿Venezuela se arregló?: Tendencias recientes en la distribución del ingreso
The richest decile gained 91% while the poorest lost 11%, and growth rates rise monotonically across the distribution — every decile grew faster than the one below it. The bottom 30% saw no real improvement at all. Constructed as a growth incidence curve from ENCOVI…
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Remesas, Pobreza y Distribución del Ingreso en Venezuela: ¿Qué dice la evidencia?
Remittances reach 24.3% of Venezuelan households and supply 59% of total income in the poorest quintile against 37% in the richest. The identification is clean: recipient and non-recipient households show statistically identical poverty rates of 66% once remittances are stripped out, so the difference between…